Carolina Red?

Apparently there are more campaigns going on beyond the one for president. Also, as it turns out, they are also somewhat important to the country. Senator Elizabeth Dole is up for re-election and faces a challenge from State Senator Kay Hagan. Also, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory faces Lt. Governor Bev Perdue in the gubernatorial election.

North Carolina, often classified as a solid "red state", is really anything but. We regularly elect Democratic governors and a majority Democratic General Assembly. Our Representatives to the U.S. House of Representatives is slightly Democratic, 7 to 6. However, the last time we voted for a Democratic candidate for President was in 1976 for Jimmy Carter. That means we do vote Republican in Presidential races, but Republicans have won 6 of the last 9 Presidential elections. So while we may vote for Republican Presidents, many others do as well.

To me, the writing on the wall says that North Carolina is becoming more blue with each passing day. A clear sign of this was the 2004 Senate race between Richard Burr and Erskine Bowles. Burr won a hotly contested race by five percentage points, in a year in which Republicans retained the Presidency and increased their majority in Congress. Burr beat Bowles who ran against Dole in 2002. Dole won by almost 10 percent.

So why the change? The most glaring thing to me is the population growth in North Carolina. The 2000 Census put the North Carolina population at 8,049,313. Estimates for 2007 had the population at 9,061,032. This growth is concentrated in the cities, which are the more liberal areas of the state. Calling Cary the Containment Area for Relocated Yankees is more fact than many may think.

Another possible reason for the move towards the blue for North Carolina is the worn off results of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It is difficult to argue against the theory that the move of the southern states to the Republican Party over the past 40 years was not directly correlated to the signing of the Civil Rights Act. While it may not be the only reason, it does factor into the equation. The percentage of the electorate who are bitter (dangerous word choice I know) over this decision is declining. Thus, the Democratic Party has a shot at more voters than it did before.

Bottom Line: North Carolina is in play.

Rabbit